YANGZIJIANG AND HONG LEONG ASIA - A DISMAL LOOK AT CHINA

Both Yangzijiang (YZJ) and Hong Leong Asia (HLA) reported their 4Q results. And things don't look pretty.

HLA which produces consumer goods, appliances, diesel engines for the Chinese market alluded that the world economy would be affected by the largely bearish and underperforming equity markets. Well, I agree that happens, in some ways. But quoting an unnamed HR consultant on wage growth in China seemed a bit off and odd. HLA is still conducting a strategic review of Xinfei's business. I hope they get a buyout offer.

I used to like YZJ. But ever since their involvement in the micro credit and financing business, I decided to put them on the backburner. Their latest 4Q net profit is a -99% drop from 2014's. Enough said.

In any case, these two companies are excellent for monitoring certain segments of the Chinese economical health. But only for monitoring at this juncture.

PREVIEWING ST ENGINEERING'S 'NOT SO GOOD' FY2015 RESULTS

Actually, there's not much to preview or crystal ball gaze prior to 26 Feb's results. 

Just lifted this from STENG's 3Q results and guidance for FY Revenue/PBT. 

Not good. ST Marine providing the drag.

Update (26 Feb): The drop in PBT is not that bad as expected. But what's more encouraging is the forward guidance by STE that revenue for FY2016 would be higher and PBT comparable. Great to know!

BIDADARI FEB 2016 BTO - NOT SO PRIME SITE

The latest HDB BTO sales launch starts today on 24 Feb 2016. As mentioned previously, Bidadari forms part of this 'exciting' town which is parked under Toa Payoh. This means the usual restrictions pertaining to BTO launches in Mature Estate.

Let's get straight to the point. The new plot at Bidadari, called Alkaff Oasis, is not that prime of an offer. It's sited about 400-500m away from both MRT stations. There is a mosque and a school nearby. Two sides are road facing with no good views to offer. 

The good thing is, Alkaff Oasis is cheaper than the previous Bidadari offering in 2015. 

There are more 4-room units catering to earlier demands seen in 2015. That should be a consolation to folks who hanker after them...you should stand a higher chance. With the economic slowdown, you would probably expect less applicants too.

Good luck!



alkaff oasis, bidadari, bidadari estate bto, hdb bto, hdb bto feb 2016, Singapore

DBS CEO: 2 RISKS YOU HAVE TO KNOW

DBS CEO's recent earning call was nothing short of enlightening. Especially so in his single powerpoint slide on tail events. 

Two things make up that slide:
1. Large one-offs e.g., a large corporate collapse

2. Sharp RMB devaluation in the next three months

What's the probability that these two risks materialise? Nobody knows. But views that the yuan's devaluation is only beginning are abound. 

Sit tight folks.

KEPPEL DROPS

Is this what yesterday's drop was all about? 

Until there is more clarity, I am steering clear.

OBSERVED: INCREASED BAD NEWS FLOW IN SINGAPORE MEDIA

There are a number of ways in which one can assess the health of the economy and observing the flow of business-related news is one such method.

The Singapore media have been pretty factual in its reporting of local business news. Which is to say nothing much's been censored or overtly glossed over. At least that's my assessment. But of course, Business Times' coverage do differ from Straits Times', especially in its nuancing by going for the throats.

In any case, these few weeks have seen financial reporters getting bylines in prominent the first five pages of the Straits Times. And most of the accompanying articles are reports of bad news in the local business realm. Retrenchment, dismal property sales figures, plunging exports. 

And that's not a good thing.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TO STI TODAY? 5 FEB 2016.

Nothing. 

Just an elevated pre-lunar new year short-covering by the various funds which had been shorting the STI happily in the past one month.

恭喜发财 everyone. May the Singapore bourse prosper on 初三!

P.S. Keep a lookout for non-farm payrolls tonight 9.30pm Singapore time.

THE 4-ROOM MATURED ESTATE SYNDROME

An ex-colleague recently lamented he failed to get a number in his 13th BTO attempt. I asked which estate he had applied for. Bidadari.

Having expressed my thoughts on Bidadari some posts earlier, I was familiar with the fervour in which potential applicants had favoured 4 and 5-rooms units there.

I asked why the decision to apply for a 4-room unit rather than a 3-room given there were no plans for children? The ex-colleague replied it was for the potential rental of the two additional bedrooms for income.

With the high number of applicants for the said 4 and 5-room units at Bidadari, I would say the chances of getting a queue number is small, but not impossible. 

For those who hankers after a 4 or 5-room unit in a matured estate, the wait can be long unless lady luck is smiling upon you. For those who need a flat for a small family of three or less, the 3-room units at Bidadari were expectedly less subscribed. 

Good luck in your future applications. Knowing where the betters odds lie will favour you.